St. Louis, Missouri
Central Corridor Transit Study
Building on the previous work in the Transit-Oriented Development Study for the CORTEX District in 2011, H3 Studio has been working with BLA to develop and extensive analysis and ridership model for the future MetroLink based on anticipated future development and existing projects. A database of existing population and employment created during the CORTEX TOD Study would serve as the starting point for developing updated population and employment projections. That database incorporates proprietary employment data, land use (parcel) data from the City of St. Louis, and population data from the Census within ½ mile of the proposed CORTEX Station.
The team will also analyze a series of alternative travel demand models for the future station, and develop manual ridership projections. Ridership forecasts generated using travel demand models tend to have more credibility as compared to other methods and are better able to withstand scrutiny and garner the acceptance of stakeholders. Manual methods will be employed to validate the model’s ridership projection for the future station in order to provide greater confidence in the results and garner the acceptance of stakeholders. Forecasts of population and employment growth will be updated using the assumptions of the previous study as the starting point. Updated forecasts will be developed considering information obtained from stakeholders and any recent planning documents for institutions or planned developments within the Central Corridor. The approximate assessed value added of future development within ½ mile of the will be estimated for purposes of quantifying potential tax revenues based upon existing mechanisms of taxation, including property taxes, earnings taxes, and sales taxes. Any property tax abatement and tax-increment financing provisions currently in place will be reflected in the calculations. The estimates will be prepared for Opening Year as well as 10 and 20 Years Post-Opening.